Risk Analysis

Run Monte Carlo Simulations on Your Trading Strategy

Estimate drawdown probabilities, risk of ruin, and return distributions with Monte Carlo simulation.

The Problem

A single backtest shows one path, but markets are random; Monte Carlo reveals the distribution of possible futures.

Reshuffle historical trades and price paths thousands of times to estimate realistic drawdowns and returns.

Estimate probability of max drawdown

Measure risk of ruin and streaks

Compare strategy robustness across scenarios

Export statistical reports

Use your backtest trade list as the input distribution.

Run 1,000+ randomized paths for statistical significance.

Review return and drawdown percentiles.

Reduce exposure if worst-case outcomes exceed your tolerance.

Join traders who use NeuroBacktest to turn ideas into data-backed strategies.

Use Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the probability of drawdowns, ruin, and profitable outcomes from your backtest.